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M9490439.TXT
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1994-09-19
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Document 0439
DOCN M9490439
TI A methodological study of a nonlinear stochastic model of an AIDS
epidemic with recruitment.
DT 9411
AU Mode CJ; Gollwitzer HE; Salsburg MA; Sleeman CK; Department of
Mathematics and Computer Science, Drexel; University, Philadelphia,
Pennsylvania 19104.
SO IMA J Math Appl Med Biol. 1989;6(3):179-203. Unique Identifier :
AIDSLINE MED/94334605
AB A nonlinear stochastic model of an AIDS epidemic with recruitment of
infectives, susceptibles, and AIDS cases into a randomly mixing
population of male homosexuals was formulated and studied from a
methodological point of view through intensive computer experimentation.
Probability generating functions were used to formulate a model for the
monthly probability that a susceptible individual becomes infected with
HIV, under the assumption that the probability of infection per sexual
contact varies as a function of the duration of infection. A method for
taking into account the use of condoms to prevent infection with HIV was
also introduced. Nonlinear difference equations, resembling
deterministic epidemic models, were embedded in the stochastic
population process by iterating an initial conditional expectation.
Examples of Monte Carlo experiments are presented, illustrating that
solutions of these nonlinear difference equations are not always good
measures of central tendency for variations in the sample functions of
the process. Two important substantive conclusions drawn from the Monte
Carlo experiments were that efforts should be made to collect
quantitative information on the probability of infection per sexual
contact as a function of duration of infection and the frequency of
condom use within and among risk categories in a population.
DE Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/*EPIDEMIOLOGY/PREVENTION &
CONTROL/TRANSMISSION *Epidemiologic Methods Homosexuality Human HIV
Infections/EPIDEMIOLOGY/TRANSMISSION Male Monte Carlo Method
Probability *Stochastic Processes JOURNAL ARTICLE
SOURCE: National Library of Medicine. NOTICE: This material may be
protected by Copyright Law (Title 17, U.S.Code).